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The psychology of indicative conditionals and conditional bets
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In: https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00834585 ; 2013 (2013)
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Abstract:
There is a new Bayesian, or probabilistic, paradigm in the psychology of reasoning, with new psychological accounts of the indicative conditional of natural language. In psychological experiments in this new paradigm, people judge that the probability of the indicative conditional, P(if A then C), is the conditional probability of C given A, P(C | A). In other experiments, participants respond with what has been called the 'de- fective' truth table: they judge that if A then C is true when A holds and C holds, is false when A holds and C does not, and is neither true nor false when A does not hold. We argue that these responses are not 'defective' in any negative sense, as many psychologists have implied. We point out that a number of normative researchers, including de Finetti, have proposed such a table for various coherent interpretations of the third value. We review the relevant general tables in the normative literature, in which there is a third value for A and C and the logically compound forms of the natural language conditional, negation, conjunction, disjunction, and the material conditional. We describe the results of an experiment on which of these tables best describes ordinary people's judgements when the third value is interpreted as indicating uncertainty.
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Keyword:
[SCCO.COGPSY]Cognitive science/domain_scco.cogpsy; [SHS.LANGUE.SEMANTICS]Humanities and Social Sciences/Linguistics/domain_shs.langue.semantics; [SHS.PHIL.LOGIC]Humanities and Social Sciences/Philosophy/domain_shs.phil.logic; Bayesian account of reasoning; de Finetti tables; probability conditional; uncertainty and three-valued tables
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URL: https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00834585
https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00834585/file/BPO.pdf
https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00834585/document
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| 2 |
Could it be the case that if I am right my opponents will be pleased? A rejoinder to Johnson-Laird, Byrne and Girotto
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In: ISSN: 0167-7411 ; EISSN: 1572-8749 ; Topoi ; https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00343125 ; Topoi, Springer Verlag, 2009, 28 (1), pp.81-85. ⟨10.1007/sl1245-008-9048-x⟩ (2009)
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| 3 |
Solving categorical syllogisms with singular premises
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In: ISSN: 1354-6783 ; EISSN: 1464-0708 ; Thinking and Reasoning ; https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00343123 ; Thinking and Reasoning, Taylor & Francis (Routledge), 2008, 14 (4), pp.414-453 (2008)
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| 4 |
Pragmatics and Logical Form
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In: Explicit communication. Robyn Carston's Pragmatics. ; https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00137220 ; Esther Romero, Belén Soria. Explicit communication. Robyn Carston's Pragmatics., Palgrave-Macmillan, 2007 (2007)
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| 5 |
Adaptationism for Human Cognition: Strong, Spurious or Weak?
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In: ISSN: 0268-1064 ; EISSN: 1468-0017 ; Mind and Language ; https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00000574 ; Mind and Language, Wiley, 2005, 20 (1) (2005)
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| 6 |
Les concepts ne sont pas une espece naturelle
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In: https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/ijn_00000514 ; domain_scco.cogpsy. Université Paris-Sorbonne - Paris IV, 2004. Français (2004)
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| 7 |
Evolution and Devolution of Knowledge: A Tale of Two Biologies
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In: ISSN: 1359-0987 ; EISSN: 1467-9655 ; Journal of the Royal Anthropological Institute ; https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00000484 ; Journal of the Royal Anthropological Institute, Wiley, 2004, 10, pp.395-420 (2004)
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| 8 |
A Metamodule for Conceptual Integration: Language or Theory of Mind?
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In: ISSN: 0140-525X ; EISSN: 1469-1825 ; Behavioral and Brain Sciences ; https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00000307 ; Behavioral and Brain Sciences, Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2003, pp.OOO-OOO (2003)
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| 9 |
Embedded Implicatures
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In: ISSN: 1520-8583 ; EISSN: 1520-8583 ; Philosophical Perspectives ; https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00000372 ; Philosophical Perspectives, Wiley, 2003 (2003)
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| 10 |
Delegation, Subdivision, and Modularity: How Rich is Conceptual Structure?
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In: ISSN: 0140-525X ; EISSN: 1469-1825 ; Behavioral and Brain Sciences ; https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00000402 ; Behavioral and Brain Sciences, Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2003 (2003)
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| 11 |
Modest Adaptationism: Muddling Through Cognition and Language
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In: ISSN: 0140-525X ; EISSN: 1469-1825 ; Behavioral and Brain Sciences ; https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00000305 ; Behavioral and Brain Sciences, Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2002, pp.000-000 (2002)
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| 12 |
Anti-Anti-Cartesianism: Reply to Suart Shanker
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In: ISSN: 0011-3204 ; EISSN: 1537-5382 ; Current Anthropology ; https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00000121 ; Current Anthropology, University of Chicago Press, 2001, 42 (4), pp.498-500 (2001)
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| 13 |
A CHEATER-DETECTION MODULE? DUBIOUS INTERPRETATIONS OF THE WASON SELECTION TASK AND LOGIC
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In: Evolution and Cognition ; https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00000130 ; Evolution and Cognition, 2001, 7 (2), pp.187-192 (2001)
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| 14 |
Folkbiology and the anthropology of science: Cognitive universals and cultural particulars
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In: ISSN: 0140-525X ; EISSN: 1469-1825 ; Behavioral and Brain Sciences ; https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00000109 ; Behavioral and Brain Sciences, Cambridge University Press (CUP), 1998, 21, pp.547-609 (1998)
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| 15 |
Faut-il avoir peur du holisme sémantique?
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In: Catégorisation, Représentation et Systèmes Symboliques, ; https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00000237 ; Danièle Dubois. Catégorisation, Représentation et Systèmes Symboliques,, Paris: Kimé, pp.190-208, 1997, 9 (1997)
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| 16 |
The alleged priority of literal interpretation
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In: ISSN: 0364-0213 ; EISSN: 1551-6709 ; Cognitive Science ; https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00000181 ; Cognitive Science, Wiley, 1995, 19, pp.207-232 (1995)
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