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1	Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension
	Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn, Sarah; Ito, Aine; Segaert, Katrien; Kogan, Vita; Tuomainen Eugenia Kulakova, Jyrki; Rousselet, Guillaume A.; Ferguson, Heather; Darley, Emily; Mézière, Diane; Kazanina, Nina; Rueschemeyer, Shirley-Ann; Busch-Moreno, Simon; Politzer-Ahles, Stephen; Barr, Dale J.; Nieuwland, Mante S.; Huettig, Falk; Kohút, Zdenko; Fu, Xiap; Bartolozzi, Federica; Husband, E. Matthew; Heyselaar, Evelien; Donaldson, David I.. - : eLife Sciences Publications, 2018
	Abstract: Do people routinely pre-activate the meaning and even the phonological form of upcoming words? The most acclaimed evidence for phonological prediction comes from a 2005 Nature Neuroscience publication by DeLong, Urbach and Kutas, who observed a graded modulation of electrical brain potentials (N400) to nouns and preceding articles by the probability that people use a word to continue the sentence fragment (‘cloze’). In our direct replication study spanning 9 laboratories (N=334), pre-registered replication-analyses and exploratory Bayes factor analyses successfully replicated the noun-results but, crucially, not the article-results. Pre-registered single-trial analyses also yielded a statistically significant effect for the nouns but not the articles. Exploratory Bayesian single-trial analyses showed that the article-effect may be non-zero but is likely far smaller than originally reported and too small to observe without very large sample sizes. Our results do not support the view that readers routinely pre-activate the phonological form of predictable words.
	URL: http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/160008/1/160008.pdf http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/160008/
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